Cognitive Biases, Positive Black Swan Events and Startups
Comments (13) Success and Cognitive Bias
One thing that often strikes me about conversations regarding start-up success is the pervasiveness of the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias.
We can go to Wikipedia’s entry on Taleb for a definition:
Narrative fallacy: creating a story post-hoc so that an event will seem to have an identifiable cause.
Allow me to illustrate. What caused YouTube to grow at phenomenal rates in 2005/2006, eventually leading to a $1.65 billion acquisition by Google in 2006?
Was the cause:
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