Comments (3) Here’s what I submitted to Eric Ries as an idea for the cover of his upcoming book:
For some reason, it didn’t get chosen. : ) Actually, it’s a just slide from my You are (not) a Visionary deck I presented at last week’s Wisconsin’s Forward Technology Conference.
I just did.
A couple of weeks ago, I tweeted:
f***ing hard telling clients maybe their “baby is ugly.” #lsmSF#leanstartupMI#EntrepreneurDownDays
The pause that followed was a deep void. It was emotional.
During the next week of reflection, a non-early adopter, but loyal user of the product called the founder to announce that he would not after all, pay for the product. Not at the proposed price, not at the price they had argued for, not at any price.
So he fired himself as Founder and CEO of his company. And then he fired me. (“I no longer need your services. But in the future…”)
We talked briefly about his future, including possible pivots and leaps, but essentially, the gig was up. I admire his self-awareness and the honesty with which he evaluated his situation.
Can you do that?
Yes, it’s difficult to know when to kill your idea. Yes, you should be knocking down walls to work. But the market is the final arbiter, not your hustle.
There’s a whole slice of our society based on non-transparency, on not being totally truthful. It’s necessary for polite society. You don’t always need to hear your haircut sucks or you look fat in that outfit. But this is a problem, too, when you really need to hear the straight dope. As a startup founder, you need to surround yourself with people who are willing to speak the truth.
You need to talk to investors who won’t grinfuck you, e.g., those who makes intros to a bunch of other investors, instead of telling you why he thinks you’re not fundable. You need advisors like Dan Martell, who challenge whether you got the stuff, or Patrick Vlaskovits, who will kick your ass because you’re spending more time documenting your business canvas then actually outside the building testing your business model. Truth-telling is why I admire Eric Ries, who is willing to challenge the most fundamental media myths surrounding startups and “visionaries.”
Gravity’s Zipper
You will be exposed. If your idea isn’t what you’ve built it up to be in your mind, it will eventually fail. Believe in yourself, be skeptical of your idea. Surround yourself with truth tellers.
At long last, here’s the video from Steve Blank’s presentation last month.
Steve Blank speaks to San Diego Tech Founders from Brant Cooper on Vimeo.
Contents:
00:00 My Intro
03:17 Why Accountants Don’t Run Startups
- Old constraints on startups
- Entrepreneurial explosion
- Startups vs Small Businesses vs Large Businesses
- IBM example of big company disruptive innovation
- What did my income statement say in month 1?
- “You’ve just washed ashore on an a deserted island with a knife in your mouth and a loincloth.”
- Searching for a business model, not a business plan
- Customer Development
58:26 Atoms or Bits (New Material)
- Physical vs Online products
- History of Lean
1:03:26 Sloan vs Durant
1:08:41 Q&A
1:29:50 My Conclusion
Be sure to come check out entrepreneur turned investor Mark Suster talk to San Diego Tech Founders March 31.
=> Startups RSVP here.
=> Investors, Service Providers, Professionals RSVP here.
If you follow high tech startups at all, it was virtually impossible to have missed all the discussions this summer regarding disruptions occurring in the startup environment, including the role of investors, the wisdom of “Lean startups,” and bemoaning the fall of the “big win” mentality. As I sad in a Venture Beat article, when in the midst of change, it’s difficult to know where you are in the curve. It’s also difficult to discern whether something is an instigator of change or the result of change.
I think it’s important to understand that there is a new startup reality, that this reality is not based on fads, but represents a fundamental shift — i.e., there is no going back.
First, startups are a global phenomenon. If you don’t believe me, hitch a ride on one of Dave McClure’s Geeks on a Plane trip or note the different languages used to tweet about Lean Startups. Not only are entrepreneurs creating new startups around the world, but the ability to hire quality resources and manage remote teams improves every year.
Second, startups are cheaper to start. By now this is stating the obvious, but with open source platforms and tools, the relative ease of building product (including hardware) compared to a decade ago, the emergence of social media and marketing analytics, and again, inexpensive global resources, mean that founders can get up and running toward proving elements of their business model for thousands of dollars.
Third, startups are social. Back in the day, the sole purpose of networking events was to exchange business cards and exercise ego. It was about “what can you do for me.” Today, it’s about “what can I do for you.” In my experience, entrepreneurs today embrace the ethos of “providing value,” with the belief that value will someday, somewhere be provided back. There is a desire for real entrepreneurial community that creates an incredibly fertile environment.
Fourth, startups are data-intelligent. While there’s always the risk of drowning in data, the fact is that entrepreneurs have an incredible amount of intelligence about their customers. From resources that today seem incredibly mundane like dead-simple survey tools, to narrow, but powerful apps to test and measure user experience and interface design, to sophisticated analytics around marketing funnels and product feature usage, startups are able to “build, test, measure” like never before.
Fifth, startups are savvy. By this I mean, that they are a smarter about building startups. Not because they are more intelligent, but because they have 1-4 above. They are more worldly-wise, they are open, they share, they are eager to learn and they have access to incredible mentoring.
Barring some global catastrophe like, I don’t know, the ice caps melting or something, none of the above is reverting back to the way it was in the past anytime soon. Unable to predict the future, I’ll leave open whether bigger trends emerge. But so given the above, what can we discern?
The macro changes described above have created a perfect storm for disruption to the startup environment. It has given rise of the “super angel.” Is has resulted in an explosion of incubators, accelerators, co-working spaces and mentorship programs. It has enabled the successful emergence of the Lean Startup methodology. While in the micro- sense, as individuals, Eric Ries and Steve Blank are changing how startups are build and Dave McClure is helping change the investor landscape, from a macro- point of view, they are the result of disruption, not the cause.
I point this out not to diminish their accomplishments, but on the contrary, to argue 1) criticisms of their activity largely miss the real point; and 2) we don’t know yet how the environment will look, only that it won’t be the way it was before.
So with that, I will go ahead and predict where I think we’re headed.
Already, college students worldwide graduate believing they will launch a startup. Go to any Startup Weekend or Lean Startup Machine event and listen to interesting pitches being made by weekend warriors. It’s incredible. Hundreds of thousands of would be startup entrepreneurs emerging globally every year. We are witnessing a fundamental shift in power from investors to entrepreneurs. Local communities are forming everywhere with entrepreneurship as their focus. These ecosystems are emerging to support “grassroots entrepreneurship.”
All these startups cannot be funded by institutional investors. Friends and family investors is already an accepted first effort, though VCs were preaching otherwise as recent as a couple of years ago. Perhaps some still do. The rise of early stage (even 5-10K) investments through wealthy individuals, angels and incubators is already occurring.
No matter how much some bemoan “dipshit” companies, sorry brother, they are here to stay.
The fall of the “big win” is permanent. Investors, find a new model. You can’t just bet on the needle in the ever-growing haystack.
The role of M&A will increase. Big companies will struggle to keep up with both sustaining and disruptive innovation. Acquisition is their only hope. Secondary equity markets to merge synergistic startups will rise in prominence.
On the entrepreneurs’ side, Founders will continue to need to prove business models to get funding, so the use of Lean Startup or Lean Startup-like methodologies will accelerate, as well bootstrapping and crowdsourcing.
While some of this may seem obvious and some wild speculation, the fundamental factors driving the disruption are pretty indisputable. And it’s important to distinguish between what we can do and changes we can drive versus what is changing us. Such a perspective can help us at the very least, to picture the forest if not actually see it.
What is being created, in my estimation, is an innovation machine. High-powered Lean Startups — fast pivoting toward product-market fit and capital efficient — are like “Moore’s Law for Startups”: increasing output on decreasing input, over time. Imagine an environment where we embrace dozens of startups attacking similar problems, but with different solutions and targeting different segments. Large businesses are perhaps constructed from small wins. Big businesses innovate through acquisition. Such an environment can only lead to more and faster disruptive innovation.
The real question then becomes, perhaps, how does society handle an increasing rate of disruptive innovation?
Right or wrongly, Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) is held out as a representative of inevitable doom and gloom scenarios involving human existence. Critics often point to technological advances as examples of how humans continually postpone, if not vanquish, Malthus’ scenarios. There will always be those ready to declare, The End is Near! But there’s no denying the world faces extraordinary problems. And I can’t help but feel that when you have a powerful groundswell of entrepreneurship occurring on the one hand, and an absurd peak of celebrating ignorance in our society on the other, that we are perhaps reaching toward the next epoch of innovation and enlightenment.
Whether trying to change your life, your business, or the world, the Lean Startup principles as laid out in The Lean Entrepreneur will help you move the needle.Market By Numbers is powered by WordPress
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