Some examples: there may be consider able innovation in both the automobile and newspaper industries in the next decade because the current situation is so precarious. Atul Gawande in “Better” recounts considerable innovation in the “medical service supply chain” for combat troops during the second Iraq War. In this case they were able to make changes in war because the casualties would have died otherwise, there was little downside risk.

Another impetus for change is when an industry is similar and adjacent to another that has already made a transition. Many aspects of medical care, for example, involve the need to manage paperwork intelligently (e..g electronic medical record) but really require no more care than Amazon lavishes on making sure that your books arrive.

I like your suggestion to interview prospects and to focus on what they will pay for. I think there is some advantage to talking to more conservative prospects (mainstream or laggard) as a fraction of your total interview pool. One of the downsides of early adopters is that they often are able to avoid or work around shortcomings in your offering, frequently without telling you. I think you need to continue to talk to some mainstream prospects to continue to make your pitch more easily intelligible.

Great topic, interesting seeing you write more on it.